There isn’t much going on today. All the breathless excitement from the Mueller investigation came yesterday, the president of Catalonia escaped to Brussels, and Trump is dragging out the Fed Chair announcement. I’m going to do a quick write up with the Taylor Rule and the assumptions made by the San Francisco Federal Reserve (I’ll post it later), but see if you can win!
- See if you can set monetary policy better than the Fed. I got 4.49% unemployment and 2.36% inflation. SF Federal Reserve
- Tyler Cowen, my favorite economist, on Trump and the Fed decision. Bloomberg
- Despite additional PBOC measures, Chinese treasuries down. Yields highest since 2014. Nasdaq
- As much as we love the Powell/Yellen/Taylor race, the succession at the PBOC may be infinitely more important. Nikkei Asian Review
- Long form interview with ECB Executive Board Member Benoît Cœuré. ECB
Big day for Catalonia. I don’t know how we got to this place in Spain. It seems like the Catalans have been threatening to leave for as long as I can remember. Spanish bonds are down (obviously) and yet the ECB is continuing to tighten. Political risk is a real thing, guys.
- Catalonia parliament votes to become independent. CNBC
- Trump gets to fill more FOMC seats than any president since Woodrow Wilson. Daily Reckoning
- PBOC testing demand for more easy money. Bloomberg
- Mnuchin talking about the tax plan. FT
- The Euro and European bonds are getting smushed. Reuters
The financial press have gotten excited by comments out of the People’s Bank of China. Zhou Xiaochuan, PBOC Governor, warned that household and corporate debt in China may be creeping too high in China, risking a “Minsky Moment” in which sectors of the economy face cash flow problems in servicing their debt (see Crisis, 2008 Financial).
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