Links – 2017.10.30

There isn’t much going on today.  All the breathless excitement from the Mueller investigation came yesterday, the president of Catalonia escaped to Brussels, and Trump is dragging out the Fed Chair announcement.  I’m going to do a quick write up with the Taylor Rule and the assumptions made by the San Francisco Federal Reserve (I’ll post it later), but see if you can win!

• See if you can set monetary policy better than the Fed.  I got 4.49% unemployment and 2.36% inflation.  SF Federal Reserve
• Tyler Cowen, my favorite economist, on Trump and the Fed decision.  Bloomberg
• Despite additional PBOC measures, Chinese treasuries down.  Yields highest since 2014.  Nasdaq
• As much as we love the Powell/Yellen/Taylor race, the succession at the PBOC may be infinitely more important.  Nikkei Asian Review
• Long form interview with ECB Executive Board Member Benoît Cœuré.  ECB

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Links – 2017.10.26

Am I extra attuned to it recently, or is there a TON of talk about inflation these days?  The BOJ doesn’t care about low inflation, the Philly Fed says some inflation goes away because stuff is free online, and Yellen is talking specifically about changing inflation expectations.  Weird.

• Don’t bet on Trump’s Fed pick to really move the bond needle. FT
• “No need to take excessive steps to meet price target.”  Reuters
• The ECB decision is exactly what they said it would be.  CNBC
• Measuring the “Free” Digital Economy.  Philadelphia Fed
• Did Yellen dent the Fed’s credibility on inflation?  Bloomberg

Links – 2017.10.25

Ooo!  Trump asked Republicans what they think of the candidates!  Ooo!

I like to think that he did this like we did in grade school where your teacher doesn’t want the popular kids to influence the vote.  “Everybody put your head down and close your eyes.  If you think Jerome should be Fed Chair, please raise your hand.  Mitch, please stop peeking.”

• Trump asked for Senate show of hands on who he should make Fed chair. CNBC
• Co-Fed Chairs?  That sounds like a terrible idea … MarketWatch
• Brazil should be fine with Fed tightening because severe recession lowered inflation.  Reuters
• Regulation leading to consolidation?  Fewer financial institutions and size of financial sector larger.  ECB
• Model assumptions may be leading the ECB to being too dovish.  Bank of Finland

Links – 2017.10.17

It’s early in the process … I’m going to add a few links everyday, and some of them are going to be dated.  I’ll get through my back catalog sooner or later.

• European high-yield bonds yield the same as US 10yr. Janus Investors
• The Dovish and Not-As-Dovish FOMC members debate inflation. Bloomberg
• Is the 2% inflation target too low? Economic Policy Institute
• Bullard: Fed should defend inflation target.  Reuters
• Fischer retires and likes Yellen for Chair.  The Straits Times